Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4139
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 4139 · SRQ → MIA
departs 6:22 AM ET · arrives 7:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 8%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SRQ are usually not late
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.