MQ 4148 · JAX → MIA

departs 8:48 PM ET · arrives 10:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.74 in

MIA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4148 · JAX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?