MQ 4180 · RDU → DCA

departs 10:47 AM ET · arrives 12:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4180 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?