MQ 4225 · TPA → MIA

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.10 in

MIA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4225 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?