Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4260
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
MQ 4260 · DFW → AVL
departs 7:30 PM CT · arrives 10:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AVL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AVL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.