Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4260
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 4260 · DFW → AVL
departs 7:30 PM CT · arrives 10:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AVL that day
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.39 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.