Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4260
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
MQ 4260 · DFW → AVL
departs 7:30 PM CT · arrives 10:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AVL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.22 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.