MQ 4295 · ATL → DCA

departs 11:15 AM ET · arrives 1:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5.33333 mi Precip0.05 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4295 · ATL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?