Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4310 LANDED 6:59 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

MQ 4310 · MIA → ORF

took off 5:07 PM ET · landed 6:59 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4310 · MIA → ORF

Odds over time