Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2366 LANDED 5:09 PM ET, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MX 2366 · RDU → TPA

took off 3:26 PM ET · landed 5:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at RDU that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 2366 · RDU → TPA

Odds over time