Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2366
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
MX 2366 · RDU → TPA
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 5:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.