Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

OH 5104 · BUF → DCA

departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 2:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5104 · BUF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?