Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

OH 5104 · DCA → BUF

departs 10:51 AM ET · arrives 12:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5104 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?