Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5106 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

OH 5106 · DCA → BUF

departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5106 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?