OH 5144 · DCA → ROC

departs 9:10 AM ET · arrives 10:36 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into ROC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5144 · DCA → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?