OH 5172 · DCA → CVG

departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 4:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5172 · DCA → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?