OH 5186 · ALB → DCA

departs 5:18 AM ET · arrives 6:53 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ ALB is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from ALB are usually not late

Weather at each end

ALB (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5186 · ALB → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?