Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5200 · GRR → DCA

departs 2:03 PM ET · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 52% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5200 · GRR → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?