Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5204 · DCA → GSP

departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 12:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at GSP that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into GSP at that hour are usually not late

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSP (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5204 · DCA → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?