Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5236 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5236 · DCA → HPN

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HPN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HPN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,433 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HPN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5236 · DCA → HPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to HPN?