OH 5243 · MSY → DCA

departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MSY are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.20 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5243 · MSY → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?