Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5338 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5338 · DCA → ORF

departs 3:59 PM ET · arrives 5:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility0.666667 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5338 · DCA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?