OH 5396 · BUF → DCA

departs 6:03 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BUF that day

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5396 · BUF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?