Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5401 · HPN → DCA

departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ HPN is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

HPN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3.86667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5401 · HPN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?