Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5581 · DCA → RDU

departs 8:50 AM ET · arrives 10:15 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at RDU that day

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

↓ RDU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,433 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5581 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?