OH 5598 · ORF → CLT

took off 3:31 PM ET · expected to land 4:20 PM ET (scheduled 3:00 PM ET → 4:29 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

LIVE

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from ORF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

CLT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5598 · ORF → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?