Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5636 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5636 · PHL → DCA

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,433 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5636 · PHL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?