Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5641 LANDED 4:02 PM ET, ~12 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

OH 5641 · ECP → DCA

took off 1:21 PM CT · landed 4:02 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 3.4 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ ECP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip4.46 in

DCA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5641 · ECP → DCA

Odds over time