Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 3081 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:44 PM CT, ETA 6:58 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

SY 3081 · MSP → SBD

took off 5:44 PM CT · expected to land 6:58 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SBD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 3081 · MSP → SBD

Odds over time