Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 186 LANDED 5:44 AM +03, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

TK 186 · ORD → IST

took off 12:05 PM CT · landed 5:44 AM +03 (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IST (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TK 186 · ORD → IST

Odds over time