Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
TK 186 · ORD → IST
departs 11:27 AM CT · arrives 5:31 AM +03
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Arrivals into IST at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.