Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1511SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
UA 1511 · EWR → MIA
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
19%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.