UA 197 · NRT → GUM

departs 5:19 PM JST · arrives 10:08 PM ChST

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GUM?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.9 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ GUM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

GUM (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 197 · NRT → GUM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUM?