Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 197 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 197 · NRT → GUM

departs 5:09 PM JST · arrives 10:05 PM ChST

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GUM?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

GUM (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 197 · NRT → GUM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUM?