Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2296 · IAH → DCA

departs 4:55 PM CT · arrives 9:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility0.666667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2296 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?