UA 2489 · SDQ → EWR

departs 1:07 PM AST · arrives 5:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDQ

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDQ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2489 · SDQ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?