Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2490 · BNA → IAH

departs 6:42 PM CT · arrives 8:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2490 · BNA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?