Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2740 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2740 · IAH → MIA

departs 4:50 PM CT · arrives 8:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2740 · IAH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?