Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2780 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2780 · IAH → SNA

departs 12:30 PM CT · arrives 2:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2780 · IAH → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?