UA 445 · DEN → MIA

departs 4:07 PM MT · arrives 10:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 445 · DEN → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?