Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 1045 · BWI → PBI
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PBI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PBI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.666667 mi forecast at BWI that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
PBI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.