Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 1428 · DCA → BNA
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.