Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 1453 · DCA → MSY
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DCA that day
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.