WN 1502 · DCA → MCO

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1502 · DCA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?