WN 1513 · DCA → MSY

departs 11:50 AM ET · arrives 1:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at MSY that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1513 · DCA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?