Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 245 · ATL → TPA
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.48 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.