Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 245 · ATL → TPA
departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.12 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.