Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 245 · ATL → TPA
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 39%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −22 pts in 24h
−22 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.