WN 4405 · MCO → PHX

took off 9:09 PM ET · expected to land 10:11 PM MT (scheduled 7:34 PM ET → 9:09 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
81%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4405 · MCO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?