Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4902
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4902 · MSY → AUS
departs 10:40 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.14 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.